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The IH Alerts Service is a combination of all of the BEST PLAYS from all of the nightly newsletter services at InvestmentHouse.com! You get Detailed Market Insights, Expert Technical Analysis and real-time Market Alerts sent to your computer and/or mobile device! MARKET SUMMARY - Weak jobs report too weak for stocks, not weak enough for the Fed, and the market sells. - A last hour rumor/report from the Fed's designated leak reporter helps lift stocks from the lows. - Gold sees no rate cut regardless of the Fed leaker. - Defensive Blame Bush for what he left Obama? What about what Clinton left Bush? - Index charts still look technically fit, but earnings can change that picture. Jobs report: on the right track or a gut punch? Obama: A step in the right direction Romney: A gut punch Dueling speeches but the facts are the facts. 80K non-farm jobs on top of 77K the prior week (revised up from 69K). 225K for the entire quarter, the lowest since 2010. In a week that saw national manufacturing fall back into contraction where it has not been since 2009, I suppose it is fitting that job creation fell back to levels of the same period. The sad irony is, jobs creation never came close to mirroring the success of the manufacturing recovery. Indeed, the prior two years saw hiring fizzle after starting to pick up, but this time manufacturing is now down and June retail sales were the worst in 3 years with 0.1% growth. With manufacturing, a leading indicator (remember, it telegraphed the recovery) turned back to contraction, can the President really say the economy is on the right path because a lagging indicator is hanging on to historically weak levels? He can say it, and he did, but he is wrong. There is no recovery in labor. The employment:population ratio held at 58.6%, down from 59.4% in June 2009 when the recession ended. The decade average is 63%. Going nowhere for three years. Instead, once more we had to hear (endure?) talk of how bad things were when he took over. Yes the housing crash compounded by outlandish and irresponsible spending was bad. As noted on Tuesday, however, Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize winning Keynesian the administration loves, advocated a housing bubble in order to get over the tech and overall stock market crash set up at the end of the Clinton administration. And we all know the likes of Senator Dodd, Schumer, and Congressman Frank who advocated and quite frankly threatened mortgage companies and banks if they did not extend loans to constituents even as the Bush Administration called for reigning in Fannie and Freddie. Bush was not innocent; he advocated home ownership and spent like crazy with his Medicare Part D, but can Obama really call that out today as a cause of our problems when he has spent more in his term than all Presidents preceding him combined? I remember writing about the first couple of years of the Bush administration and how the economy was performing. I went through the litany of events that confronted the country during that time. On March 2000 the stock market topped thanks to major monetary policy blunders from Alan Greenspan (recall he flooded the economy with money pre-Y2K even as he hiked rates, pulled it ALL back in March, then raised rates with another 50BP kicker in May; the market pitched over and the economy finished falling into the recession that was starting under the end of the Clinton years). It was a monumental bubble and a monumental crash. In the aftermath there was virtually no investment in the US for 3 straight years. During that period we lost our technology edge and thousands upon thousands of tech jobs that went overseas in a brain drain and those jobs never came back. Then there was the corporate malfeasance with Tyco's CEO plundering his company, Worldcom officers bankrupting that company, and Enron's smartest guys in the room epitomizing the height of corporate arrogance and then the depth of corporate collapse. That was followed by the 9-11 terror attacks JUST when the stock market was starting to turn the corner in a signal the recession was ending. That plunged us back into recession. Remember, it was the housing market that remained strong throughout. Nesting, 'stay-cations,' and an abundance of easy money courtesy of Greenspan (at the urging of the likes of Krugman) was seen as the force that kept the economy from totally cratering given business was dormant after the beating it received at the hands of the Fed. Cisco's Chambers said at the time he had never seen the business cycle turn so fast from so good to so bad. Thousands of companies went bust and those that did not spent years eating the inventory build up accrued before the rug was pulled. It is no wonder we lost so many jobs overseas as companies were hesitant to invest and encounter the same troubles again from a Fed and government that could so easily spike the punch bowl and then take it away. So as you see, it was not a situation of a simple decision to create the housing bubble out of nothing. It was the LAST lap of a race to the bottom so to speak as the Fed officials and the government in the form of the Congress and Executive tried to patch one policy misstep with another one. The tech crash was bad. The housing crash was simply a bigger bubble on top of that bubble. The current Fed stimulus gambit, similar to China's building binge, is another last ditch attempt to thwart another massive collapse, one that tried to happen in 2008 but that was propped up. As the Great Depression showed us, propping up only prolongs the pain. The Great Depression would have ultimately ended without WWII, but it would have taken another 10 years to do so. That means the prognosis is not good for us now as we are trying to wind down wars and cut spending, but at the same time not freeing companies and entrepreneurs from massive new regulations in every aspect of business so they can truly grow us out of this mess. We used to laugh at the Eurozone's huge increase in regulations when the countries combined. The result of that overregulation is clear, but what is also sadly clear is that we are following in its footsteps. The clear, empirical evidence shows that their way does not produce equality, balanced budgets, quality healthcare, or decent levels of economic activity. We fought a war to break away from that system and now we are willingly going back? Is that a 'step in the right direction?' Stocks see through the rhetoric, see no rate cuts, sell on weak data and not much economic hope. Stocks saw through it all. Weak numbers again, back to 2010 levels, but not weak enough for the Fed to act. Futures flopped fairly hard as stocks opened lower and sold through lunch. Midmorning we posited the possibility of an afternoon run, but also noted that the indices were holding over the 10 day EMA, the near support level for a 'normal' test. Of course the test was a bit much for just one day though I do note it was nowhere near as negative as it was the prior 'test' of the breakout from the inverted head and shoulders. The indices double bottomed and started upside off the second bottom with two hours left. Just when they were out of steam on a short bounce, the Wall Street Journal's Hilsenrath, the Fed's leaker of choice, issued a short narrative about the jobs report and what the Fed could likely do. The blurbs came across one at a time but it went like this: weak jobs increases likelihood of Fed action but doesn't ensure it. Fed hawks want to wait for more serious threats, but some officials are interested in bond purchases. That my friends is QE. There was a lot more, but that was the gist. It said NOTHING new but it was what the Fed wanted out there to help bolster the markets. 'Jawboning' as they used to call it when Greenspan talked for minutes and said nothing, similar to the governor in 'The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas.' Yes, a definite maybe but it was enough for the markets. The indices bounced, cut the losses, and looked pretty decent on the close above the 10 day EMA. In position to bounce next week, maybe after a bit more testing, but of course earnings will have something to say about that as the season cranks up and the warnings are running almost 5:1 over upside surprises. Makes sense: the economy is slowing down fast, heading toward ECRI's recession. Read the Full Market Summary Watch Market Overview Video Watch Technical Summary Video Watch Next Session Video
Company Profile After Hours: $2.92 EARNINGS: 08/08/2012 STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice run to early February. Peaked and then started the current 5 month base, a nice rounded bottom with a couple of lows. Note how in May when CYTX put in a slightly lower low MACD put in a higher low. MACD is still improving and as CYTX broke higher in late June and early July MACD was higher than it was in March when prices were higher. A good lateral test last week with CYTX starting back upside Friday. A good break higher and we are ready to move in. CHART VIDEO Volume: 290.654K Avg Volume: 323.817K BUY POINT: $2.97 Volume=365K Target=$4.15 Stop=$2.66 POSITION: CYTX 12I2.50 - Sept. 2.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock Learn more about the "IH Alerts" and how we have been making money trading with this report online for over a decade. Get the "IH Alerts" free for 14 days! Details Here.
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PG (Procter & Gamble Company) Company Profile Our Success Trading Group will be watching closely for entry points next week. We currently like Procter & Gamble Company (Ticker: PG) at its current price for new positions. Our Success Trading Group closed 52 Wins in 52 Weeks with 0 losses in one calendar year and has entered222 trades with a 98% winning track record on our Main Trade Table in the last 6 calendar years (2006 - 2011). Get Our Next Trade Free - Details Here.
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JMBA (Jamba, Inc.) Company Profile Jamba, Inc. (Ticker: JMBA) through its subsidiary, Jamba Juice Company, owns and franchises Jamba Juice stores. It operates as a restaurant retailer of specialty beverages and food products. With the July heat rolling in all over what could be better than investing in ice cold drinks? So goes the logic that has been driving up shares of this well-known retailer. Actually, the recent heat waves do make it likely that JMBA will report some good numbers for this period. Additionally, they have released some new "healthier" options on their menu that are getting positive results. This move, although not earth shattering, may have a real advantage of great timing. Thus, in the coming week we will be looking for a possible entry into this stock. Try our $10 Trader Real-Time Alert Service! Get Our Next Trade Free - Details Here.
As the name implies, the Short-Term Market Manager is a trading service designed to help investors navigate the short-term trends (defined as 5-15 trading days) of the stock market, using easy-to-trade ETF's. Our goal is simple: We want to be "in" the market via Index ETF's when the stock market is rising and either out or "short" (via Inverse ETF's) when the market is falling. And yes, we will use leveraged ETF's to boost performance! The service is easy to follow... We tell you exactly what and when we are buying or selling via our "Live Blog" technology (which also triggers email trade alerts) and then we update our performance, current holdings, and new member ratings every single day. From Dave's Friday Report... Stocks are lower this morning in response to two issues. First, Europe continues to be a mess. Yields in Spain moved back over 7% today and over 6% in Italy, CDS are movin' on up as well, and there is talk of a "Fixi" - a Finland exit of the EU. Thus, the blooms appears to be off of the roses of the EU Summit and ECB easing. Next up is the Nonfarm Payroll report, which showed that the U.S. created just 80K jobs in June. The payrolls numbers was well below the expectations for anywhere between 100K and 125K, and stands in stark contrast to yesterday's ADP report (which wasn't half bad). The problem is the report may not be bad enough to get the Fed revved up to launch another round of QE. In short, "muddling through" isn't good enough anymore as anemic growth around the globe will clearly impact earnings. Today's Portfolio Strategy: STTF Portion of the Portfolio: The STTF looks like it will issue a sell signal today. Thus, hindsight tells us that it was a positive to not fully implement the last buy signal. A close below 1359 would produce a sell signal. (Remember that the "trigger points" we use for STTF portion are based on CLOSING levels. Also remember that we will send a trade alert BEFORE we make a move, so you don't need to watch the levels - we provide them for informational purposes.) Manager Discretion: Days like today are the reason I've remained cautious in this news-driven environment and I'm not changing my view today. In short, although stocks are down today, should traders get a whiff of more QE from the Fed, it will be off to the races again. So, with more than 3 weeks until the next Fed meeting, this is likely no time to get aggressive on either side of the trade. As always, know that we will send a Trade Alert BEFORE we make any moves. Have a great day. The "Short-Term Market Manager" - Markets are moving faster than ever before...Are you keeping up? the STMM system was up +144% in the last 5 years (S&P 500: -11.3%). Learn how to get ALL of Mr. Moenning's Short-Term trades free for 30 days! 6 Free Reports! Choose any 3 Click Here!
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Sunday, July 8, 2012
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